Crude Oil Set To Rise
Crude Oil Set To Rise
July 9, 2009
Crude oil has been feeling the heat lately so let us see what is happening.
In this 3 minute video you will see that we can easily forecast where the price will fall to before finding support and making a recovery.
Over the past eight days we have seen the price fall from $73 a barrel and we are expecting a low of 59-59.51. The pattern is a typical double top with a pivot point from which we can measure the expected low.
Furthermore, using a combination of the MACD which has crossed over showing a negative, our Trade Triangles which only show positive in the monthly forcast and the Fibonacci tool, this prediction is confirmed.
So we are expecting crude to find support and turn around into positive territory at the 59-59.51 mark.
Let’s see what happens.
Let’s hear from you on the blog!
All the best,
Go to it,
Good Trading,
Tom Nadir
Discover how to have an instant analysis on any symbols sent to your inbox immediately.
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
Market Club
Attention Traders Don’t miss these new free trading videos.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only.
Compiled by Tom Nadir
Sterling Remains Under Pressure
Sterling Remains Under Pressure
July 9, 2009
Yesterday sterling remained under pressure for the trading day as the prospect of increasing the QE programme was priced into sterling. As is common on interest rate decisions, the speculation beforehand will move the value of the currency before the actual announcement.
Sterling clung to its current trading range against the USD and the Euro but only just; in afternoon trading we briefly saw a test of the 1.60 level against the USD before sterling managed to fight its way back to 1.61; against the euro it dipped to 1.1550 but did not threaten the 1.15 level. This morning sterling has hopped up against the USD so a good start to the day for sterling but it is not out of the woods yet.
Later today the Bank of England are set to confirm the increase in QE but it will be the accompanying statement that will be key. The risk for sterling is if the door is left open for further expansion of the QE programme going forward. We will find out this afternoon!
The Yen has been very active against most major currencies this week advancing strongly against the USD and the pound. Currently we sit just over 150 on GBP/YEN and 93.33 on USD/YEN. The pull back into Yen is not surprisingly attributed to fading optimism on an economic recovery and a move out of risky assets in line with this sentiment. The Japanese authorities unsurprisingly expressed concerns over the undesireable strength of the YEN; a bit of verbal intervention.
The move out of risk is clear when looking at the CRB index which is a broad index of commodity prices; the CRB is down more than 12% from last month pushing below its 200 day moving average. This is a clear signal that the recent rebound is over. This also highlights a swing back into deflationary pressure due to falling prices and stalling economic activity This will alarm central banks and could be a factor for the Bank Of England this afternoon to leave the door open for more QE.
Data from Australia confirmed that June unempoloyment came in marginally better than expected at 5.8% against a forecast of 5.9%. Not a key stat but a hint of good news amid the gloom. The G8 statement offered no mention on currency. Comments affirmed that the recession is the steepest since World War II and too fragile still to consider looking at exit strategies for stimuls measures.
President Obama actually pressed for the door to be left open for further stimulus measures. Gordon Brown said “the G-8 needed to sound as second wakeup call for the world economy”, the concern of a relapse is a strong theme from the G8.
Report by Phil McHugh
Receive daily currency rate updates and market commentaries direct to your e-mail daily FREE from Currencies Direct
Currencies Direct & Forex trading
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct’s head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Currencies Direct and MarketClub Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
Euro v Dollar? Would You Go Long?
Euro v Dollar? Would You Go Long?
July 7, 2009
The Euro versus the Dollar is an interesting situation, meeting resistance around the 1.41 level. But what position are you taking?
The monthly (long term position) and the daily (trend) Trade Triangles are positive whereas the daily triangle (used for timing) is in conflict. In such a situation it is advisable to remain neutral in the market. Overall, we notice a “Double Bottom” and classic pivot point and we are looking to break the 1.45 mark.
Please, if you are risk adverse then this may not be for you but otherwise I recommend you take a look at this short video right now.
My regular readers will know that the video is free to watch and there is no need to register
Let’s hear from you on the blog!
All the best,
Good Trading,
Tom Nadir.
Key Events and Commentary available earlier every morning, via The Market Club
Market Club
Attention Traders Don’t miss these new free trading videos.
You can view new videos by clicking here with my compliments.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Compiled by Tom Nadir
The Balkan Headache is Still Thumping
The Balkan Headache is Still Thumping
July 7, 2009
Very quiet in the FX markets yesterday and the USD and the YEN continued to remain firm across the market. The lack of movement in the markets and the support of the USD and YEN can be attributed to a weak assessment by the European policy makers.
ECB president Trichet was very prudent during the latest Financial Stability Review and his tone had a whiff of fear on a further credit crunch within the banking sector.
This concern has been heightened through an article in the Telegraph highlighting dire conditions in the Balkan states, in particular Latvia and Bulgaria. Both nations had their currency pegged to the euro with very negative results as GDP is dropping sharply. Unemployment is increasing and fiscal deficits are rising.
The concern is that this could spill over to lending nations such as Greece, Hungary and Italy. The Balkan headache is still thumping and going forward, could realize significant downward pressure on the euro. No direct effect on the markets as yet but definitely an area to watch.
The Bank of England is still on course this week to ask the government to increase the QE programme. The uncertainty of a recovery is obviously leading the MPC on the train of thought that too much too soon is a better prospect than too little too late.
In other news the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left rates unchanged at 3% adding that economic conditions are better than expected. The AUD is a touch higher on the news.
For the UK this morning we have the release of UK industrial production for May, this is expected at +0.2 month on month. Sterling is looking for a good number to hold its current trading position against the majors.
Yesterday the pound managed to claw back slightly against the euro and remained flat against the USD but still sits in a precarious position ahead of the BoE announcement on Thursday.
Report by Phil McHugh
Receive daily currency rate updates and market commentaries direct to your e-mail daily FREE from Currencies Direct
- Currencies Direct & Forex trading
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct’s head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Currencies Direct and MarketClub Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
Sterling Suffers Again
Sterling Suffers Again
July 6, 2009
With Friday being a US holiday it was expected that we would see some volatility within the trading ranges. In UK trading we did not see a jot as the markets remained relatively quiet ahead of the weekend.
The situation changed in Asian trading as risk aversion was ratcheted up a couple of notches due to a few contributing factors. Firstly the hangover of the payroll data on Thursday was still apparent and undermined any move into risky assets.
In addition the civil unrest in China did not help. Here violence in the western region of Xinjiang has left at least 140 people dead and more than 800 people injured helping the case for risk aversion. We also have jitters ahead of the Obama-Medvedev meeting in Moscow on the reduction of nuclear warheads.
The US Dollar has made gains especially against sterling where it has moved below the crucial support of 1.62 to 1.6140 currently, this is a break lower in the recent trading range. Sterling has not been helped with news that the Bank Of England’s monetary policy committee is expected to extend its programme of quantitative easing by £25 billion this week. This is sterling negative, especially given the fact the Europe have not committed to extend their programme on QE. If the extension does proceed it is likely that this will be the last expansion of the QE programme by the Bank of England.
Not a great deal in terms of data today. We have Euro zone sentix investor confidence which is expected slightly better at -25 from previous -27. This stat underlines investor confidence towards the euro zone economy.
Watch out for sterling today as technically and fundamentally it is on the ropes. This is very apparent against the Japanese Yenwhere the rate has slumped to 153 from 159 at the end of last week. Against the USDthe 1.60 level could now come under pressure and 1.15 against the euro, therefore this week is a big week for sterling to underline and consolidate its recent gains. If it breaks below the key levels mentioned it could be a case of mind the gap as we look then towards 1.55 and 1.10 again.
Report by Phil McHugh
Receive daily currency rate updates and market commentaries direct to your e-mail daily FREE from Currencies Direct
Currencies Direct & Forex trading
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct’s head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Currencies Direct and MarketClub Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.You can view new trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.BlogCatalog – Finance
Currencies Direct and MarketClub Updates, currency market updates,currencies direct, marketclub updates,Tom Nadir, Phil McHugh
Sterling Under Pressure
July 6, 2009
With Friday being a US holiday it was expected that we would see some volatility within the trading ranges. In UK trading we did not see a jot as the markets remained relatively quiet ahead of the weekend.
The situation changed in Asian trading as risk aversion was ratcheted up a couple of notches due to a few contributing factors. Firstly the hangover of the payroll data on Thursday was still apparent and undermined any move into risky assets.
In addition the civil unrest in China did not help. Here violence in the western region of Xinjiang has left at least 140 people dead and more than 800 people injured helping the case for risk aversion. We also have jitters ahead of the Obama-Medvedev meeting in Moscow on the reduction of nuclear warheads.
The US Dollar has made gains especially against sterling where it has moved below the crucial support of 1.62 to 1.6140 currently, this is a break lower in the recent trading range. Sterling has not been helped with news that the Bank Of England’s monetary policy committee is expected to extend its programme of quantitative easing by £25 billion this week. This is sterling negative, especially given the fact the Europe have not committed to extend their programme on QE. If the extension does proceed it is likely that this will be the last expansion of the QE programme by the Bank of England.
Not a great deal in terms of data today. We have Euro zone sentix investor confidence which is expected slightly better at -25 from previous -27. This stat underlines investor confidence towards the euro zone economy.
Watch out for sterling today as technically and fundamentally it is on the ropes. This is very apparent against the Japanese Yen
where the rate has slumped to 153 from 159 at the end of last week. Against the USD
the 1.60 level could now come under pressure and 1.15 against the euro, therefore this week is a big week for sterling to underline and consolidate its recent gains. If it breaks below the key levels mentioned it could be a case of mind the gap as we look then towards 1.55 and 1.10 again.
Report by Phil McHugh
Receive daily currency rate updates and market commentaries direct to your e-mail daily FREE from Currencies Direct
Currencies Direct & Forex trading
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct’s head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Currencies Direct and MarketClub Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
S&P 500 Index Review for July
The S&P 500 Index Review for July
July 2nd 2009
The S&P index for July is showing signs of weakening. During March and April and again in May in June we saw a broad trading range.
Currently our monthly Trade Triangles are showing an upward trend but our weekly Trade Triangles are pointing down. This indicates a neutral market and traders should be on the sidelines at this time.
When we apply the Fibonacci tool it is pointing to a short position at around the 810 mark while the 880 mark is the key level to watch. We will be putting our stops at 783.32.
Additionally the MACD is pointing down so watch this market right now and be ready to act at the 810 mark.
Take a look at this video for a clearer picture of the S&P July update.
I hope you find the video informative, educational and profitable.
My regular readers will know that the video is free to watch and there is no need to register.
Let’s hear from you on our blog!
All the best,
Go to it,
Good Trading,
Tom Nadir
Take a look more free educational trading videos here.
The contents of this report are compiled by Tom Nadir for information purposes only.
Polish Zloty Shines Before Payroll Thursday
Polish Zloty Shines Before Payroll Thursday
July 2, 2009
Sterling lost more ground against the EUR and the USD yesterday as the repercussions of the lower GDP number continued to weigh it down. The euro was lifted following news from the OECD stating that there is no risk of deflation for the euro zone and a report from Reuters that the Chinese had asked for a new reserve currency to be discussed at the G8 next week.
EUR/USD pushed up to 1.42 before selling by the Bank of International Settlements and Russia eased it back to 1.41. The euro gained further against sterling forcing it back towards 1.16 and the lows of the current trading range.
Data from the UK yesterday was actually slightly better than expected with manufacturing activity shrinking at its slowest pace for a year. Although this raised hopes that GDP data will improve later in the year it was not significant to stop the slip in sterling.
Today the main focus will be on payroll data from the US out at 13:30 GMT. Non-farm payroll data is the most important data point for all financial markets and is released normally on the first Friday of each month (this month Thursday due to Independence Day holiday tomorrow)
Reaction to the data can cause huge volatility in the FX markets led by the USD as sentiment and expectation are measured in real time. A good number is US dollar positive and a weak number USD negative in normal markets. However at the moment in the current economic climate a good number will add to the risk appetite bandwagon and could lead to a sell off in the USD on improved sentiment.
The number for June is expected around -365k and unemployment is expected a touch higher at 9.6% from 9.4% previously. If we see a 10-20% deviation from the expected, then hang on to your hats.
Also today we have the monthly European Central Bank meeting from the ECB. Rates are expected to be kept on hold at 1% but it will be the statement following that could affect the FX markets with any talk of additional QE measures (unlikely) moving the euro.
A big mover in the markets yesterday was the Polish Zloty which advanced to its highest level in six weeks against the euro. Poland has lined up a World Bank loan of $4.5 billion and the pace of manufacturing shrank so a double win for the currency yesterday.
Report by Phil McHugh
Receive daily currency rate updates and market commentaries direct to your e-mail daily FREE from Currencies Direct
Currencies Direct & Forex trading
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct’s head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Currencies Direct and MarketClub Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
Sterling Unable to Maintain Rally
Sterling Unable to Maintain Rally
July 1, 2009
Well yesterday certainly started well for sterling as it crashed through 1.66 against the USD and pushed over 1.18 against the euro.
Unfortunately, as has been the trend for sterling this did not last; in fact the rally was reversing ahead of the UK GDP data for the first quarter. The release of the data only catalysed the reversal. GDP came in at -2.4% which is the sharpest decline for over 50 years bringing in the annual fall to 4.9%.
Naturally the gloom merchants jumped on this news as a snappy headline against the backdrop of recent greenshoots. The implication for sterling was to pull it back into the range bound trading ranges that we have been seeing over the last two weeks of 1.62-1.66 against the USD and 1.15-1.1800 on the euro.
Going forward the continually contracting GDP data is obviously a concern but in my eyes expected; however as unemployement numbers normally lag behing GDP data then we should see unemployment rising more sharply than expected. The GDP data also highlights a move away from current forecasts for the UK economy, especially by the chancellor who expects growth of 1.25% next year.
The weak data for the UK helped the USD in particular in morning trading as the rate retraced from 1.675 to 1.66 by later morning. US consumer confidence data dropped to 49.3 in June from 54.8 in May- a bad number which exasperated a move into risk aversion started by weak UK GDP data. This led to further USD gains as Wall Street dipped on a sombre note and pushed cable down to 1.64. GBP/EUR also fell below 1.17 helped by better than expected German unemployment data.
The Japanese Yen came inder pressure even in the light of a move into risk aversion, losing ground against the euro and the USD. Overnight the Tankan manufacturing survey rose but to a lesser extent than expected. USD/YEN pushed to 97.00 from 95.00 levels with large US buyers noted. In other news China’s manufacturing expanded for the fourth month in a row with PMI rising to 53.2 from 53.1 in May.
Look out for UK PMI data this morning at 9:30. It is likely to come in unchanged but another weak number following the GDP data could lead to a further slide for the pound to the lower end of the ranges.
Report by Phil McHugh
Receive daily currency rate updates and market commentaries direct to your e-mail daily FREE from Currencies Direct
Currencies Direct & Forex trading
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct’s head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Currencies Direct and MarketClub Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
Apple and RIMM in The “Smart Phone” War
While demand for the products are high, traders cash in on the share value. Find out who is winning and how you could easily be a winner too!
|
Fraudsters Beware the Fate of Bernard Madoff
Frudsters Beware the Fate of Bernard Madoff
June 30, 2009
Late trading yesterday on Wall Street and in Asian equities pushed up commodities; crude oil moved up 3.4%, copper and Gold also gained. This reflected increased risk sentiment in the markets. This led to the usual swings in the markets with the USD and Yen broadly sold.
EUR/USD pushed back up to 1.41, GBP/USD pushed over the 1.66 resistance level to a high of 1.6743 and GBP/EUR pushed through 1.18 to a high of 1.1850.
Sterling is also being underpinned by healthy data out overnight and this morning. UK Gfk consumer confidence data came in at -25, this is the highest reading in 15 months. In addition UK nationwide house price data was penned at +0.9% month on month. The house price data was a nice surprise for sterling as the market was expecting a drop of 0.5% following the 0.4% drop in May.
Naturally the report is still noting caution on the data but it does add to the sentiment that we are seeing a bottoming out in house price falls. Expect a little caution on sterling ahead of the GDP data at 09:30, if we see a good number here we could test further on the upside against the EUR and USD.
Look out for data from the US later in the form of consumer confidence and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, again if we see good data this should help the risk appetitie sentiment and fuel further sellling of USD.
We also have the Tankan survey from the Bank Of Japan later tonight which highlights forecasts for growth in the manufacturing sector, this is released against the backdrop of the jobless rate in Japan posting a 5 year high. An improvement is expeceted but given the weak jobless data and improved sentiment we could see the Yen weakne further along with the USD.
Yesterday Bernard Madoff, the disgraced financier, was jailed for 150 years for orchestrating the $65 bn fraud. The heavy sentence is a little pointless given that he is 71 years old, however it does reflect the severity of the crime and certainly sends a message to would be fraudsters…
Report by Phil McHugh
Receive daily currency rate updates and market commentaries direct to your e-mail daily FREE from Currencies Direct
Currencies Direct & Forex trading
Currencies Direct is a leading commercial foreign exchange company with offices in the UK, Australia and Spain and has offices across 5 continents. Currencies Direct’s head office and global trading centre is based in the City of London.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. Currencies Direct and MarketClub Updates are compiled by Tom Nadir.
You can view new trading videos by clicking here, with my compliments.
